Time Series Analysis of Mortalities Resulting from Car Accidents in Injured Individuals Hospitalized in Shiraz Shahid Rajaee Hospital During 2010 - 2016




Background: Traffic events are among the greatest health problems which are ignored among other health issues. The treatments related to these events can involve individuals for a long period of time. Objectives: This study aimed to predict the mortality resulting from car accidents in injured individuals referring to Shiraz Shahid Rajaee hospital. Methods: This study was conducted on all the patients hospitalized in Shahid Rajaee hospital due to traffic events during 2010 to 2016. The best models of various instruments including auto correlation function (ACF), partial auto correlation function (PACF), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) statistics were used for identification and fitting. Moreover, normality and statistics were taken into consideration in order to determine the validation of residual diagram’s pattern. Then, the best model was selected and analyzed using ITSM, SPSS 19, and Excel software. Results: Mortality followed an ascending trend in this study. Among male patients, mortality trend was relatively fixed, but showed an increasing slope in some months of the year. However, this trend increased continuously in females. Considering different age groups, mortality followed a relatively fixed trend in below-30-year-old individuals, an increasing trend among the individuals between 30 and 45 years of age, and a steeper slope among above-45-year-old ones. Moreover, the prediction models indicated that the majority of the accidents had taken place during spring and summer. Conclusions: The mortality resulting from car accidents followed an increasing trend. This can be attributed to the increasing number of cars in Shiraz, economic changes in Iran, and the country’s movement towards development which lead to a decrease in motorcycle events and an increase in the car accidents. Moreover, the majority of accidents leading to death had taken place in May and September. This can be related to tourist attraction of this province during these months.